US election poll tracker: Who is ahead - Clinton or Trump?A major 2016 presidential poll released on Sunday, October 30 shows that the presidential race nationally is tightening back to a virtual tie, matching a trend line seen in recent polling averages that find a closer contest.
Hillary Clinton has led in other recent national polls, however, so overall the latest presidential polls show a mixed bag. It’s important, of course, to not read too much into one poll. Patterns and averages can tell you more.
The most recent poll getting attention – by ABC News/Washington Post – shows Clinton with a 1-point lead over Donald Trump that is in the margin for error. The poll found more Republicans coming home for Trump, and Independents breaking his way. This was the same poll that also generated interest when, just a few days ago, it showed Clinton up a whopping 12 percentage points. The margin was 2 points for Clinton the day before.
The poll also found that 34 percent of likely voters are less likely to vote for Clinton because of the new FBI review into emails.
The RealClearPolitics four-way presidential polling average has Clinton up an average 3.4 percentage points from polling encompassing October 20-29, which is down from the previous week and even the day before. FiveThirtyEight’s average of Clinton vs. Trump has her up 5.5 percentage points on October 28, down from 5.8 the day before and 6.4 percentage points on October 26.
It will take several days to learn how FBI Director James Comey’s controversial letter to Congress will alter the race, if at all, as most recent presidential polls don’t yet reflect the time period of his letter. However, the ABC poll was conducted over a three-day time period that ended the day the Comey letter was released.
But some recent presidential polls show the race continues to tighten, with Donald Trump regaining some momentum after dropping in the polls earlier in October due to the string of sexual misconduct allegations lodged against him. The race was virtually tied in September until those allegations. Before September, Clinton had a healthy lead for most of the summer.
Of course, national polls can only tell us so much; a close look at key battleground states can be more instructive, and recent polling has also found a tightening in some swing states. However, some states have tightened in Trump’s favor recently, and some have tightened for Clinton, and the Democratic nominee led solidly in other battleground states (like Virginia and Colorado) and was even in striking distance in some reliably red states like Arizona and Texas. That’s why sites that use statistical models to predict the election, using Electoral College predictions, still have Clinton as the overwhelming favorite. For example, Five Thirty Eight gives Clinton an 81.1% chance to win the presidency.
A new battleground poll out of North Carolina October 30 found Clinton with a 6 point lead, and a poll out of Florida gave Clinton a 1 point lead, which is basically a tie, said CNN.